RMH 4-1

Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)Introduction 12063 Once hazards and their associated risks have been identified, they should be assessed to determine the overall risk level presented by each hazard. This process begins before the flight using the process outlined in the previous chapter. While risk assessment may seem subjective at first, pilots can learn effective risk-management through routine practice and application. Risk Assessment Components 12064 Risk is the composite of the likelihood (probability) and the severity (consequences) of a particular outcome. Both likelihood and severity can vary in magnitude. Risk Likelihood 12066 The following terms describe the likelihood of an outcome: 12067 • Probable–An event may occur several times. 12068 • Occasional–An event may occur sometime. 12069 • Remote–An event is unlikely to occur but is possible. 12070 • Improbable–An event is highly unlikely to occur. 12071 To illustrate, consider the likelihood of exceeding airframe structural limits if penetrating a thunderstorm. It is likely that the airframe’s structural limits would be exceeded each time this occurs, making the likelihood “probable.” 12072 As another example, consider a case where a pilot operates at an airport surrounded by rough terrain. The runways are just long enough to accommodate the aircraft. The possibility exists for a runway overrun on each landing. Given this data, an overrun could occur sometime, and the likelihood is “occasional.” Risk Severity 12073 The following terms describe the severity of an outcome. 12074 • Catastrophic–Results in fatalities and/or total airframe loss. 12075 • Critical–Severe injury or major airframe or property damage. 12076 • Marginal–Minor injury or minor airframe or property damage. 12077 • Negligible–Less than minor injury or damage. 12078 To illustrate, consider the example of penetrating a thunderstorm. A loss of control event exceeding airframe structural limits could result in either severe injuries or fatalities and airframe loss, creating either a “critical” or a “catastrophic” outcome. 12079 In the example of the marginal runway length, an overrun could cause major damage to the aircraft and possible severe injuries, or a “critical” outcome. Chapter 4: Assessing Risk