Risk Management Exercises

Four Scenarios

This appendix includes four hypothetical scenarios to illustrate the cycle of risk management including risk identification, assessment, and mitigation. While similar to the accident scenarios in Appendix C, the following case studies do not include a risk analysis. Instead, the reader may conduct a risk analysis and consider some “what-ifs.” In this situation, there are no right or wrong answers and numerous solutions exist to mitigate risks to lower levels of likelihood and severity.

For each case study, the reader may consider the following items:

Scenario 1: Recreational Aviation

A pilot is planning an annual flight to EAA Airventure in Oshkosh, WI (OSH) using a single-engine piston airplane. [Figure D-1]. It is a direct, non-stop (390 NM) from Chan Gurney Municipal (YKN) in Yankton, SD. Passengers include two friends who have never flown in a small aircraft. The planning began several days before the scheduled departure.

AirVenture starts on Monday, and the plan is to make the flight to OSH on Sunday. The prognostic weather charts for the next several days show that a large weather system will arrive in YKN late Saturday night from the west. It will generate a line of severe thunderstorms that move rapidly east and pass OSH late Sunday evening. Behind the front, there will be low ceilings of 300-500 feet and light to moderate rain. On Saturday, Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) will exist in both YKN and OSH, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

The pilot has logged 300 hours and has an instrument rating but has not flown in actual or simulated instrument conditions in five months. The airplane is also technically legal for IFR, although the number 2 radio is out for repair. The non-stop flight to OSH will take about 3:30, and the aircraft has 4:30 endurance with full fuel.

Scenario 2: Turboprop-Powered, Personal Transportation

The pilot owns a small specialized manufacturing firm, with production facilities in St. Petersburg, FL and a second facility in Pittsfield, MA. The pilot also has a summer home in the Berkshires. To facilitate efficient travel between these locations, the pilot owns and operates a single-engine turboprop airplane and flies as a single pilot.

It is now 10:00 am on a Friday in August after a hectic but successful new product launch in Florida. The pilot just finished a press conference and wishes to head north to enjoy the weekend in the Berkshires before meetings at the Massachusetts facility on Monday. The pilot plans to fly the PA-46 nonstop (984 NM) from St. Petersburg Clearwater (PIE) to the Pittsfield, MA airport (PSF) at FL270. [Figure D-2]

While a family member/passenger drives the pilot to the airport for an 11:00 AM takeoff, the pilot reviews the flight planning. The flight should take 3:45, and the fuel on board provides endurance of 4:45. The weather is good at PSF and en route, with isolated to scattered air mass thunderstorms. However, the pilot contemplates the air traffic in the Washington, DC and New York metro areas. In the past, reroutes occurred, and the pilot was assigned a lower altitude where the PA-46 loses fuel efficiency. The plan includes an arrival at PSF at about 3:00 PM, so the pilot and passenger may attend a party with investors at 5:00 PM.

Scenario 3: Turbine Helicopter

The pilot owns a large wholesale business with multiple warehouses throughout the Los Angeles basin in California. All these facilities are within a mile of a general aviation airport. To travel between these locations and avoid the congested freeways, the pilot flies a turbine-engine helicopter.

It is 6:00 AM Monday morning, and the pilot needs to visit four facilities. The plan includes a departure from the Santa Monica airport (SMO) and flights to Van Nuys (VNY), San Gabriel Valley (EMT), Brackett Field (POC) in Pomona, and Fullerton (FUL). The pilot plans to make the return flight to SMO in the early evening, to arrive just before sunset. Figure D-3 shows the route of flight.

The weather throughout the basin is marginal VFR, with visibility of 3-5 miles and ceilings varying from 1,700 feet at FUL to 800 feet at POC. Clear skies are forecast after 2:00 PM. The pilot has an instrument rating, and the helicopter has IFR instrumentation, but it is not approved for IFR flight. The pilot is not instrument current. High terrain exists on the leg from SMO to VNY, although the pilot could divert to the east and fly through a pass in VMC to get to VNY.

Scenario 4: Turbojet-Powered Airplane

The pilot, based in Springfield, IL (SPI), owns a consulting firm with a nationwide clientele. The pilot flies a small turbojet airplane and uses it to get to meetings with clients. The pilot recently completed an approved training course and a type rating practical test. The pilot adds 20 percent to takeoff and landing distances as a personal minimum.

A client in Turners Falls, MA has an urgent need for a meeting tomorrow, Thursday, to evaluate some engineering plans and data. The meeting would take place in an industrial park on the Turners Falls airport (0B5). The 0B5 airport is 790 NM from SPI. The flight planning software indicates the flight will take about 2:15 and using a cruise altitude of FL350 provides a 45 minute reserve. The weather for Thursday in Massachusetts is forecast to be marginal VFR with ceilings of 1,200 feet and five miles visibility with cloud tops at 8,000 feet.

The pilot considers the destination logistics and consults both the New York sectional chart, the associated chart supplement, as well as sources for fuel, airport services, rental cars, and hotels. [Figure D-4]

The runway at Turners Falls is 3,200 feet. Nearby airports Orange (ORE) and Northampton (7B2) have runways of 5,000 feet and 3,335 feet, respectively. The calculated unfactored landing distance is 2,760 feet at the landing weight at Turners Falls with 600 pounds of fuel remaining. The calculated unfactored takeoff distance is 2,600 feet at full fuel or 1900 feet with only 600 pounds of fuel.

After a phone discussion with the client, the pilot realizes the meeting will require 6 hours. If the departure from SPI occurs at 8:00 AM, the meeting arrival at 0B5 should take place after 11:00 AM. If the meeting ends at 5:00 PM, and the pilot flies back to SPI, the arrival there will occur sometime after 8:00 PM Thursday evening, assuming a non-stop flight. The pilot has an important meeting back in Springfield on Friday.

Turners Falls has no jet fuel, no rental cars, and only marginal hotel availability. Orange has jet fuel, but no rental cars, and no suitable lodging nearby. Northampton has no jet fuel but does have rental cars and numerous full-service hotels available. The nearest airport with all of these services is in Westfield-Barnes Regional, MA (BAF, 9,000-foot runway) about 20 miles south of Northampton.

The minimums at Orange and Westfield-Barnes Regional provide for vertical guidance through LPV minima. At Northampton, only lateral guidance (LNAV) is available with a Minimum Descent Altitude (MDA) approximately 800 feet above the ground. Only circling minimums with an MDA approximately 1,100 feet above ground is available at Turners Falls.