RMH 4-3

Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)Case Study 12113 Note: Refer to the case study section of Chapter 3 if needed. Risk Assessment Analysis 12114 The pilot, Tricia, identified nine separate hazards and associated risks that will affect a direct non-stop flight from Animas Air Park (00C) in Colorado to the Santa Rosa, California airport (KSTS). Now, she begins the process of assessing these risks using PAVE checklist elements. Pilot 12115 Tricia identified both capability and aeromedical risks. She concludes that reduced IFR proficiency means that a loss of control in-flight (LOC-I) event is possible although unlikely. A LOC-I event, especially in convection or icing conditions, could result in a fatal accident. A combination of “remote” likelihood and “catastrophic” severity indicates a serious (yellow) risk on the risk assessment matrix. 12116 She also self-assessed her aeromedical risks using the IMSAFE checklist and identified alcohol and fatigue as potential hazards. The risks associated with these hazards could lead to multiple in-flight errors that could result in major damage or injury. Collectively, she assesses these risks as having “occasional” likelihood and “critical” severity. On the risk assessment matrix, this combination indicates a serious (yellow) risk. [Figure 4-2] 16112 Flight Risk Assessment Tool PAVE Area Hazard Risk Likelihood Severity Composite Risk Mitigation Results Pilot “P” Capability Aeromedical Not IFR proficient Alcohol and lack of sleep LOC Fatigue related errors remote occasional catastrophic critical serious serious Figure 4-2. FRAT excerpt for pilot hazards and associated risks. Aircraft 12117 She identified three areas that pertain to aircraft-related risk. During a non-stop flight, the likelihood of fuel exhaustion increases if extensive deviation around weather is needed. Fuel exhaustion over rugged western terrain could result in a fatal accident. Her assessment results in a “remote” likelihood with “catastrophic” consequences, which indicate a serious (yellow) risk on the risk assessment matrix. 12118 Tricia also noted that her aircraft is not approved for flight in known icing conditions and that a flight along the planned route might encounter icing conditions at some point. Even with an “occasional” likelihood, this could generate a CFIT or LOC-I event with fatalities, or “catastrophic” consequences, thus indicating a high (red) risk on the risk assessment matrix. 12119 Finally, the aircraft may lack the performance needed to depart from the 5,000-foot runway at Animas Air Park. Having the Smiths on board, everyone’s baggage, and a reduced fuel load would result in a takeoff at the aircraft's maximum gross weight of 2,740 pounds. The calculated takeoff distance would be 4,700 feet, and using her 20 percent safety factor produces a desired runway length of 5,640 feet, which exceeds the available runway distance. Under these conditions, Tricia determines that an overrun is possible at least some of the time and could cause major damage or severe injuries. This “occasional” likelihood and “critical” severity produces a serious (yellow) risk level from the risk assessment matrix. [Figure 4-3] 16113 Flight Risk Assessment Tool PAVE Area Hazard Risk Likelihood Severity Composite Risk Mitigation Results Aircraft “A” Fuel/Range/Payload Equipment Cannot carry full fuel Not certified for known ice Fuel exhaustion LOC remote occasional catastrophic catastrophic Performance Marginal takeoff performance Overrun, LOC, or CFIT occasional critical high serious serious Figure 4-3. FRAT excerpt for aircraft hazards and associated risks. Environment 12120 She identified three areas with environment-related risk. The weather hazards on the direct route to Santa Rosa include thunderstorms, icing, and low ceilings. There could be severe turbulence in the convective activity, which covers most of the route and poses at least an upset potential at some time, producing an “occasional” likelihood. An upset in severe turbulence