RMH 4-2

Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)Using a Risk Assessment Matrix 12080 Once risk likelihood and severity have been determined, the pilot may use a tabular matrix to find the composite of these two parameters. [Figure 4-1] 12081 Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible Improbable Remote Occasional Probable Risk Assessment Matrix Likelihood Severity Serious LowMedium Serious SeriousHigh High High Figure 4-1. Risk Assessment Matrix. 12082 Cross-matching the likelihood and severity on the matrix determines the composite risk. A thunderstorm penetration, with “catastrophic” severity and either “probable” or “occasional” likelihood, constitutes a high (red) risk level. The runway overrun, with “critical” severity and “occasional” likelihood, constitutes a serious (yellow) risk level. 12088 The medium (green) risk level implies a “go” decision for a planned or ongoing flight. However, in this case, risk should still be mitigated if possible. 12089 The high (red) or serious (yellow) categories imply “no-go” unless the pilot finds a means to reduce the risk, such that the next iteration of risk assessment indicates a medium or low risk. 12094 Risk analysis should begin hours, days, or even weeks before a flight. For a simple flight, hours in advance may suffice. However, for a complex flight with multiple legs or a series of flights over several days, a pilot should begin to consider hazards and associated risks over an extended time period. Matrix Errors 12109 When assigning a risk level to a hazard using a matrix, the results could be subject to certain errors. Accuracy 12111 The matrix provides discrete results that depend on the accurate assignment of likelihood and severity. While conducting a risk assessment, a pilot may be unsure of the likelihood or severity for a particular risk or find it difficult to choose between adjacent parameters. In such cases, pilots should apply the more conservative parameter(s), which place the risk at a higher level. Pilots learning risk analysis should seek the opinion of a more experienced pilot or an instructor if there is any doubt as to the accuracy of inputs. Skewing 12110 Pilots sometimes use inputs that skew the risk toward a lower level due to the desire to complete a flight. Obsolescence 12112 The matrix results lose relevance if the hazards change before a flight departs. Pilots should verify and reevaluate their risk assessment based on current information and conditions before flight.