RMH 4-4

Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)could result in a LOC-I event and “catastrophic” fatal accident. The “occasional” likelihood and “catastrophic” severity indicate a high (red) risk on the risk assessment matrix. 12122 Tricia’s original proposed route traverses some very high and rugged terrain. If she were to attempt to fly under the low ceilings and weather, the terrain would be a hazard with an associated CFIT risk. A CFIT event, while unlikely for a pilot with her experience, would still be possible and could result in fatalities. This “remote” likelihood and “catastrophic” severity indicate a serious (yellow) risk on the risk assessment matrix. 12121 The Animas Air Park elevation of 6,684 feet combined with July temperatures result in a high density altitude, which constitutes a hazard. The combination of high density altitude and high terrain in the area could lead to a “catastrophic” CFIT accident. This could occur at least sometime or with “occasional” likelihood. The combination of “occasional” likelihood and “catastrophic” severity indicate a high (red) risk on the risk assessment matrix. 16114 Flight Risk Assessment Tool PAVE Area Hazard Risk Likelihood Severity Composite Risk Mitigation Results Environment “V” high high highWeather Terrain Thunderstorms, icing, low ceilings High terrain LOC and CFIT CFIT occasional occasional catastrophic catastrophic Airspace, ATC, Airports Night/Over Water High density altitude N/A CFIT N/A occasional catastrophic Figure 4-4. FRAT excerpt for environment hazards and associated risks. 12124 Both Tricia and Martha face pop-up business events that appear to be critical, and Tricia has agreed to provide a solution to their transportation requirement. 12125 Tricia feels the pressure to get to Santa Rosa before the Tuesday meeting. The Smiths are good friends, and she does not want to disappoint them. She feels additional pressure because the Smiths are expected to officiate at the Independence Day festivities and wish to attend parties that night. They may not be aware of any reason why Tricia could not depart early on Tuesday and get to Santa Rosa in time for their meetings using a single-engine GA airplane. 12126 She concludes that external pressures are magnifying the identified risks, indicating a “probable” likelihood and “catastrophic” severity with high (red) risk levels. 12127 Flight Risk Assessment Tool PAVE Area Hazard Risk Likelihood Severity Composite Risk Mitigation Results External Pressure “E” Personal Business N/A Meeting deadlines for myself and Ms. Smith N/A Increased risk in all other categories probable catastrophic high Figure 4-5. FRAT Excerpt for external pressure hazards and associated risks. 16115 She finishes recording her risk assessment analysis [Figure 4-6] and begins determining ways to mitigate the risks (see the case study section in Chapter 5, Mitigating Risk). She will soon need to discuss the next steps with the Smiths.