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  3. NTSB A-21-043
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NTSB · Safety Recommendation

Safety Recommendation A-21-043

Recommendation

TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: Work with the Federal Aviation Administration to modify airmen’s meteorological information (AIRMET) advisory issuing practices to include graphical AIRMET advisories with higher granularity, taking into account the effect it would have on all National Airspace System users.

Safety Issue and Context

Turbulence-related accidents are the most common type of accident involving air carriers operating under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 121. From 2009 through 2018, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) found that turbulence-related accidents accounted for more than a third of all Part 121 accidents; most of these accidents resulted in one or more serious injuries but no aircraft damage.

This NTSB safety research report examines the prevalence and risk factors of turbulence-related accidents in Part 121 air carrier operations; assesses the effectiveness of policies, programs, technologies, and other applicable safety countermeasures; and makes recommendations for improving turbulence avoidance and injury mitigation.

Response History

September 26, 2025 · NTSB Correspondence · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

We note that, on January 27, 2025, text AIRMET advisories were retired and, because the process for producing text AIRMETs influenced the quality of G AIRMETs, the quality of G-AIRMETs has improved. On August 5, 2025, NWS staff met with our staff to discuss these improvements, which include an increased fidelity time resolution that has reduced the size of the depicted hazard area and resulted in fewer false alarms. We also note that the NWS, the FAA, and aviation stakeholders worked together to prepare for this transition and mitigate any impacts to NAS users.

We believe the combined work of the NWS and the FAA to improve and transition to G-AIRMETs satisfies the intent of Safety Recommendation A-21-43. Accordingly, the Board has voted to classify this recommendation CLOSED-- ACCEEPTABLE ACTION.

We appreciate your efforts to improve aviation safety.

July 21, 2025 · Recipient Response · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

-From Raymond Tanabe, Chief Operating Officer (Acting), NOAA National Weather Service: On January 27, 2025, the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) retired the legacy Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) text AIRMET product and informed stakeholders to use the graphical AIRMET (G-AIRMET) product that has been operational since 2010. This milestone culminated several years of collaboration with the FAA and aviation stakeholders to prepare for the more modernized product and mitigate any impacts of the transition. The benefits of the transition include better time resolution with the G-AIRMET snapshots compared to the text smear of the legacy CONUS AIRMET (a combination of 0-, 3-, and 6-hour time snapshots).

The higher fidelity time resolution allows a reduction of the size of the hazard area depicted and leads to fewer occurrences of false alarms.

The FAA has implemented software changes to accommodate the graphical AIRMET (G-AIRMET) product and has successfully transitioned to the G-AIRMET product.

Read Recommendation

Recommendation Facts

Status
Closed - Acceptable Action
Issued
September 7, 2021
Priority
CLASS II
Recipient
United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
Adopted
August 10, 2021
Closed
September 26, 2025
Related Investigation
DCA18SS003
Related Report
SS-21-01

Based on coordination and collaboration with the FAA, the NWS believes we have addressed the intent of the recommendation. We request that A-21-43 be closed.

August 15, 2023 · NTSB Correspondence · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

We note that you continue to work with the FAA to address this recommendation. In response to our request for additional information about how graphical AIRMETs will be improved by removing text AIRMETs, we note that the process for producing text AIRMETs influences the quality of graphical AIRMETs. Therefore, you believe retiring text AIRMETs will improve graphical AIRMETs because it will allow greater freedom in forecasting aviation hazards.

We believe your efforts thus far are positive and we look forward to future updates. Pending completion of the recommended action, Safety Recommendation A-21-43 remains classified OPEN-- ACCEPTABLE RESPONSE.

December 19, 2022 · Recipient Response · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

-From John D. Murphy, Chief Operating Officer, NOAA National Weather Service: There are no new details available beyond the February 2022 update however, the Board’s response requested the NWS provide “additional information about how G-AIRMETs will be improved by removing text AIRMETs”. The time that would be needed to prepare text AIRMETs will be used to add precision to the G-AIRMET polygons. Additionally, the process by which text AIRMETs are produced has an effect on the quality of G-AIRMETs. Removing this constraint allows greater freedom in forecasting aviation hazards, improving the G-AIRMET once the text AIRMET is retired.

April 1, 2022 · NTSB Correspondence · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

We note that you have met regularly with the FAA to discuss this recommendation, and you are developing a draft plan to eliminate text AIRMETs, which would reduce constraints on forecasters who issue Graphical AIRMETs (G AIRMETs) and increase granularity to make the NAS safer and more efficient. Although your efforts thus far are positive, we would like additional information about how G-AIRMETs will be improved by removing text AIRMETs. Pending our receipt of this additional information, and completion of the recommended action, Safety Recommendation A-21-43 is classified OPEN-- ACCEPTABLE RESPONSE.

January 31, 2022 · Recipient Response · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

-From John D. Murphy, Chief Operating Officer, NOAA National Weather Service: NWS has had regular meetings with the FAA to plan the complex deprecation of text AIRMETs. Doing so will remove several constraints placed on forecasters who issue Graphical AIRMETs (G-AIRMET) and will increase granularity to make the National Airspace System safer and more efficient. While not fully developed, the draft plan looks to cease text AIRMET production leading to better G-AIRMET precision in 2024.

September 21, 2021 · Recipient Response · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

-From John D. Murphy, Chief Operating Officer, NOAA National Weather Service: The NWS acknowledges receipt of these NTSB Safety Recommendations and advises work has already started to address them.

With regard to recommendation A-21-43, the NWS is currently working with the FAA to retire the Text AIRMET over the CONUS, which will enable higher granularity in Graphical AIRMET forecasts.

With regard to recommendation A-21-44, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is currently running the Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast (GTGN). Output from GTGN is available by request. The NWS is working with the FAA and NCAR on a transition plan to implement GTGN on a fully operational NWS system.

The NWS Forensic Services Program will lead the response for the NWS recommendations with coordination and inputs from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), the FAA, and NCAR. We plan to update the NTSB again on or around February 1, 2022. The NWS point of contact, NWS Forensic Services Program Manager Lora Wilson, will be responsible for the coordination and consolidation of future responses for these two recommendations. Please have your staff contact Ms. Wilson, if you have questions or require additional information ahead of any updates we might provide.

September 7, 2021 · NTSB Correspondence · United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is an independent federal agency charged by Congress with investigating every civil aviation accident in the United States and significant accidents in other modes of transportation—railroad, highway, marine, and pipeline. We determine the probable cause of the accidents and issue safety recommendations aimed at preventing future accidents. In addition, we carry out special studies concerning transportation safety and coordinate the resources of the federal government and other organizations to provide assistance to victims and their family members affected by major transportation disasters.

The attached letter from the NTSB Chairman provides information about the NTSB’s our August 10, 2021, report Preventing Turbulence-Related Injuries in Air Carrier Operations Conducted Under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121, NTSB/SS-21/01. The details of this accident investigation and the resulting safety recommendation may be found in the attached report, which can also be accessed at http://www.ntsb.gov. For more information about NTSB and our recommendation process, please see the attached one-page summary.

The NTSB is vitally interested in these recommendations because they are designed to prevent accidents and save lives. We would appreciate a response within 90 days of the date of this letter, detailing the actions you have taken or intend to take to implement these recommendations. When replying, please refer to the safety recommendation by number (for example, A-21-43 and -44). We encourage you to submit your response to ExecutiveSecretariat@ntsb.gov. If your reply exceeds 20 megabytes, including attachments, please e mail us at the same address for instructions on how to send larger documents. Please do not submit both an electronic copy and a hard copy of the same response.

All communications regarding safety recommendations will be stored by the NTSB and viewable by the public. Please do not send privileged or confidential communications in response to this recommendation. Responses marked as confidential or privileged (or similar designations) will be considered nonresponsive. If you have concerns about this protocol, please contact us at ExecutiveSecretariat@ntsb.gov.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is an independent federal agency charged by Congress with investigating every civil aviation accident in the United States and significant accidents in other modes of transportation—railroad, highway, marine, and pipeline. We determine the probable cause of the accidents and issue safety recommendations aimed at preventing future accidents. In addition, we carry out special studies concerning transportation safety and coordinate the resources of the federal government and other organizations to assist victims and their family members affected by major transportation disasters.

We are providing the following information to urge the National Weather Service to act on the safety recommendations in this letter because we believe your organization can help reduce the risk of future accidents. For more information about the NTSB and our recommendation process, please see the attached one-page summary.

This letter also includes information about our August 10, 2021, report Preventing Turbulence-Related Injuries in Air Carrier Operations Conducted Under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121, NTSB/SS-21/01. The details of this safety research and the resulting safety recommendations may be found in the attached report, which can also be accessed at http://www.ntsb.gov.

As a result of this research, we identified the following safety issues:

• Insufficient submission and dissemination of turbulence observations. • A lack of shared awareness of turbulence risks. • The need for mitigation of common turbulence-related injury circumstances. • The need for updated turbulence guidance.

Accordingly, the NTSB makes the following safety recommendations to the National Weather Service. Additional information regarding these recommendations can be found in the noted sections of the report. • Work with the Federal Aviation Administration to modify airmen’s meteorological information (AIRMET) advisory issuing practices to include graphical AIRMET advisories with higher granularity, taking into account the effect it would have on all National Airspace System users. (A-21-43) (See section 4.2.1.)

• Work with the Federal Aviation Administration to operationalize a turbulence nowcast, such as the graphical turbulence guidance nowcast. (A-21-44) (See section 4.2.2.)

The NTSB is vitally interested in these recommendations because they are designed to prevent accidents and save lives. We would appreciate a response within 90 days of the date of this letter, detailing the actions you have taken or intend to take to implement these recommendations. When replying, please refer to the safety recommendations by number (Safety Recommendations A-21-43 and -44). We encourage you to submit your response to ExecutiveSecretariat@ntsb.gov. If your reply, including attachments, exceeds 20 megabytes, please e mail us at the same address for instructions on how to send larger documents. Please do not submit both an electronic copy and a hard copy of the same response.

All communications regarding safety recommendations are stored by the NTSB and viewable by the public. Please do not send privileged or confidential communications in response to these recommendations. Responses marked as confidential or privileged (or similar designations) will be considered nonresponsive. In the likely event that your company uses auto generated and/or preformatted confidentiality statements on letterhead or outgoing e-mails, please include a statement in your letter indicating that the information can be publicly released. If you have concerns about this protocol, please contact us at ExecutiveSecretariat@ntsb.gov.