Safety Recommendation A-14-021

In your previous responses to this recommendation, you have consistently expressed your concern that forecasters need to be able to use their independent professional judgment when evaluating PIREPs. We agree; however, we believe that developing guidance on how forecasters should weigh the hazard severity information reported in PIREPs, in conjunction with other weather data, would help forecasters use their judgment and expertise to issue improved aviation weather products.

We note that you will place the wording below in NWS policy and aviation weather center manuals to further encourage forecasters to remain diligent when weighing PIREPs:

• For any severe turbulence or heavy/severe icing PIREP received, the meteorologist should immediately investigate current/anticipated meteorological conditions and PIREPs from other aircraft in the general area to determine if conditions are, in the judgment of the forecaster, expected to have a significant impact on the safety of aircraft operations.

• For any moderate turbulence or icing PIREP received, as soon as practical, the meteorologist should investigate current/anticipated meteorological conditions and PIREPs from other aircraft in the general area to determine if conditions are, in the judgment of the forecaster, expected to have a significant impact on the safety of aircraft operations.

The intent of this recommendation is to reduce ambiguity by providing forecasters with tools they can use to make better decisions, without eliminating their individual professional judgment. An example of the type of standardized guidance we seek here is the CWSU icing decision tree guidance, which incorporates simple yes or no factual questions to promote consistency. We continue to believe that it is possible to provide similar standardized guidance for forecasters on weighing information reported in PIREPs that will promote consistent determination of hazard severity.

Accordingly, the Board has voted to retain the classification of OPEN-- UNACCEPTABLE RESPONSE for Safety Recommendation A-14-21.

-From Ken Harding, Chief Operating Officer, NOAA National Weather Service: NWS forecasters already use judgment, expertise, and collaboration when a PIREP is received but it must be prioritized alongside other critical information received and observed during operational shifts. Due to differences in how aircraft and aviators handle the various types of turbulence, the NWS cannot place in policy any type of flowchart, checklist, or other prescribed process that would take away from the forecasters' ability to use individual or collective expert judgment in making forecast, advisory, and warning decisions.

The NWS will place the wording below in NWS policy and AWC manuals to further encourage forecasters to remain diligent in weighing PIREPs when received.

• For any severe turbulence or heavy/severe icing PIREP received, the meteorologist should immediately investigate current/anticipated meteorological conditions and PIREPs from other aircraft in the general area to determine if conditions are, in the judgment of the forecaster, expected to have a significant impact on the safety of aircraft operations.

• For any moderate turbulence or icing PIREP received, as soon as practical, the meteorologist should investigate current/anticipated meteorological conditions and PIREPs from other aircraft in the general area to determine if conditions are, in the judgment of the forecaster, expected to have a significant impact on the safety of aircraft operations.

During our August 19, 2019, meeting, we discussed the intent of this recommendation, which is to promote consistent hazard severity determination in PIREPs. We clarified to NWS staff that this recommendation is asking for guidance, and your staff said that it would consider updating NWS guidance to include a discussion on how information reported in PIREPs is weighted so as to promote consistent hazard-severity determination and aid aviation weather product issuance.

We note that, in the 4 years since your last letter and our meeting, the NWS continues to investigate the best way to address this recommendation. We point out that this recommendation is simply asking for guidance—not a policy change. We would like to know why the solution that was discussed during our 2019 meeting is no longer feasible. In the meantime, pending our review of this information and the recommended guidance, Safety Recommendation A-14-21 is classified OPEN-- UNACCEPTABLE RESPONSE.

-From John D. Murphy, Chief Operating Officer, NOAA National Weather Service: The NWS continues to investigate the best way to address this recommendation without removing forecaster discretion from the process. NWS forecasters must be allowed to follow many different paths when weighing the priority of a PIREP or any other piece of observational data and it is not always a path that can be followed linearly. Some of the options we are investigating include training updates that are in progress as well as potential policy changes. We will provide a more robust update once details are better determined.

During our August 19, 2019, meeting, we expressed our concern that the actions described in your recent letter did not sufficiently address this recommendation, which is to promote consistent hazard severity determination in PIREPs. We clarified to your staff that this recommendation is asking for guidance. Your staff said that it would consider updating NWS guidance to include a discussion on how information reported in PIREPs is weighted so as to promote consistent hazard-severity determination and aid aviation weather product issuance. Pending our review of such guidance, Safety Recommendation A-14-21 remains classified OPEN--ACCEPTABLE RESPONSE.

-From John D. Murphy, Chief Operating Officer, NOAA National Weather Service: The NWS contracted with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research’s (UCAR) MetEd program to develop training modules for Enroute Icing and Turbulence. This training includes examples of PIREP hazard severity and incorporating that information into the forecast process. The Enroute Icing and Turbulence training modules are part of the NWS Aviation Professional Development Series training courses as specified in NWS Instruction 10-815.

NWS has also participated in working groups with NTSB and FAA to improve the PIREP process and dissemination. To foster increased number of PIREPs and increase Air Traffic Controllers’ awareness of hazardous conditions warranting PIREPs, NWS has implemented a PIREP solicitation request process at the Air Route Traffic Control Centers. AWC has incorporated automated turbulence reporting from aircraft into the weather watch, reducing the subjectivity of hazard reporting from PIREPs. NWS recommends Safety Recommendation A-14-21 be closed.

You previously said that you were assessing standardized weighting of information in PIREPs and that you would update your policy instructions as necessary. However, it has now been almost 5 years since this recommendation was issued and we have not received any additional information from you regarding any actions that you have completed or planned in response to this recommendation. Pending our receipt of an update, Safety Recommendation A-14-21 remains classified OPEN--ACCEPTABLE RESPONSE.

We note that you are assessing standardized weighting of information in PIREPs to promote consistent determination of hazard severity and to assist in issuing aviation weather products, and that you will update your policy instructions as necessary. Pending completion of this work, including the needed revision of your policy instructions, Safety Recommendation A 10-21 is classified OPEN—ACCEPTABLE RESPONSE.

-From Louis W. Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service: NWS is assessing standardized weighting of information reported in Pilot Reports (PTR EP) to promote consistent determination of hazard severity and assist in aviation weather product issuance. As needed, NWS will update policy instructions Lo incorporate standardized guidance on weighting of information from PIREPs and will inform the FAA of the changes to NWS policy guidance.