PHAK 2-18

Figure 2-13. A real-world example of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip using the TEAM checklist. To manage the risk associated with her inexperience and lack of recent flight time, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk entirely by having another pilot act as PIC. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk and fly anyway. • Mitigate the risk by flying with another pilot. Gayle chooses to mitigate the major risk by hiring a CFI to accompany her and provide dual cross-country instruction. An added benefit is the opportunity to broaden her flying experience. Pilot To manage the risk associated with hazy conditions and mountainous terrain, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk of VFR in these conditions by asking an instrument-rated pilot to fly the trip under IFR. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk. • Mitigate the risk by careful preflight planning, filing a VFR flight plan, requesting VFR flight following, and using resources such as Flight Watch. Detailed preflight planning must be a vital part of Gayle’s weather risk mitigation strategy. The most direct route would put her over mountains for most of the trip. Because of the thick haze and pockets of IMC over mountains, Gayle might mitigate the risk by modifying the route to fly over valleys. This change will add 30 minutes to her estimated time of arrival (ETA), but the extra time is a small price to pay for avoiding possible IMC over mountains. Because her destination airport is IMC at the time of departure, Gayle needs to establish that VFR conditions exist at other airports within easy driving distance of her original destination. In addition, Gayle should review basic information (e.g., traffic pattern altitude, runway layout, frequencies) for these alternate airports. To further mitigate risk and practice good cockpit resource management, Gayle should file a VFR flight plan, use VFR flight following, and call Flight Watch to get weather updates en route. Finally, basic functions on her handheld GPS should also be practiced. Environment Aircraft To manage risk associated with any doubts about the aircraft’s mechanical condition, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk by using a different airplane. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk. • Mitigate the remaining (residual) risk through review of aircraft performance and careful preflight inspection. Since she finds no problems with the aircraft’s mechanical condition, Gayle chooses to mitigate any remaining risk through careful preflight inspection of the aircraft. External pressures To mitigate the risk of emotional pressure from family expectations that can drive a “get-there” mentality, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk by having her co-pilot act as PIC and make the continue/divert decision. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk. • Mitigate the risk by managing family expectations and making alternative arrangements in the event of diversion to another airport. Gayle and her co-pilot choose to address this risk by agreeing that each pilot has a veto on continuing the flight, and that they will divert if either becomes uncomfortable with flight conditions. Because the destination airport is still IMC at the time of departure, Gayle establishes a specific point in the trip—an en route VORTAC located between the destination airport and the two alternates—as the logical place for her “final” continue/ divert decision. Rather than give her family a specific ETA that might make Gayle feel pressured to meet the schedule, she manages her family’s expectations by advising them that she will call when she arrives. Pilots can perform risk management by using the TEAM checklist: alternative airport for every 25–30 nautical mile segment of your route. • Preflight your passengers by preparing them for the possibility of delay and diversion, and involve them in your evaluation process. • Another important tool—overlooked by many pilots— is a good post-flight analysis. When you have safely secured the airplane, take the time to review and analyze the flight as objectively as you can. Mistakes and judgment errors are inevitable; the most important thing is for you to recognize, analyze, and learn from them before your next flight. The DECIDE Model Using the acronym “DECIDE,” the six-step process DECIDE Model is another continuous loop process that provides the pilot with a logical way of making decisions. [Figure 2-14] DECIDE means to Detect, Estimate, Choose a course of action, Identify solutions, Do the necessary actions, and Evaluate the effects of the actions. First, consider a recent accident involving a Piper Apache (PA- 23). The aircraft was substantially damaged during impact with terrain at a local airport in Alabama. The certificated airline transport pilot (ATP) received minor injuries and the certificated private pilot was not injured. The private pilot