PHAK 2-16

Gayle is a healthy and well-rested private pilot with approximately 300 hours total flight time. Hazards include her lack of overall and cross-country experience and the fact that she has not flown at all in 2 months. Pilot Departure and destination airports have long runways. Weather is the main hazard. Although it is VFR, it is a typical summer day in the Mid-Atlantic region: hot (near 90 °F) hazy (visibility 7 miles), and humid with a density altitude of 2,500 feet. Weather at the destination airport (located in the mountains) is still IMC but forecast to improve to visual meteorological conditions (VMC) prior to her arrival. En route weather is VMC, but there is an AIRMET Sierra for pockets of IMC over mountain ridges along the proposed route of flight. EnVironment Aircraft Although it does not have a panel-mount GPS or weather avoidance gear, the aircraft—a C182 Skylane with long-range fuel tanks—is in good mechanical condition with no inoperative equipment. The instrument panel is a standard “six-pack.” External pressures Gayle is making the trip to spend a weekend with relatives she does not see very often. Her family is very excited and has made a number of plans for the visit. Pilots can perceive hazards by using the PAVE checklist: Figure 2-11. A real-world example of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip using the PAVE checklist. list hazards associated with all aspects of the flight: Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures, which makes up the PAVE checklist. [Figure 2-11] For each element, ask “what could hurt me, my passengers, or my aircraft?” All four elements combine and interact to create a unique situation for any flight. Pay special attention to the pilot- aircraft combination, and consider whether the combined “pilot-aircraft team” is capable of the mission you want to fly. For example, you may be a very experienced and proficient pilot, but your weather flying ability is still limited if you are flying a 1970s-model aircraft with no weather avoidance gear. On the other hand, you may have a new technically advanced aircraft with moving map GPS, weather datalink, and autopilot—but if you do not have much weather flying experience or practice in using this kind of equipment, you cannot rely on the airplane’s capability to compensate for your own lack of experience. CARE Checklist: Review Hazards and Evaluate Risks In the second step, the goal is to process this information to determine whether the identified hazards constitute risk, which is defined as the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. The degree of risk posed by a given hazard can be measured in terms of exposure (number of people or resources affected), severity (extent of possible loss), and probability (the likelihood that a hazard will cause a loss). The goal is to evaluate their impact on the safety of your flight, and consider “why must I CARE about these circumstances?” For each hazard that you perceived in step one, process by using the CARE checklist of: Consequences, Alternatives, Reality, External factors. [Figure 2-12] For example, let's evaluate a night flight to attend a business meeting: Consequences—departing after a full workday creates fatigue and pressure Alternatives—delay until morning; reschedule meeting; drive Reality —dangers and distractions of fatigue could lead to an accident External pressures—business meeting at destination might influence me A good rule of thumb for the processing phase: if you find yourself saying that it will “probably” be okay, it is definitely time for a solid reality check. If you are worried about missing a meeting, be realistic about how that pressure will affect not just your initial go/no-go decision, but also your inflight decisions to continue the flight or divert. TEAM Checklist: Choose and Implement Risk Controls Once you have perceived a hazard (step one) and processed its impact on flight safety (step two), it is time to move to the third step, perform. Perform risk management by using the TEAM checklist of: Transfer, Eliminate, Accept, Mitigate to deal with each factor. [Figure 2-13] Transfer—Should this risk decision be transferred to someone else (e.g., do you need to consult the chief flight instructor?) Eliminate—Is there a way to eliminate the hazard? Accept—Do the benefits of accepting risk outweigh the costs? Mitigate—What can you do to mitigate the risk? The goal is to perform by taking action to eliminate hazards or mitigate risk, and then continuously evaluate the outcome of this action. With the example of low ceilings at destination, for instance, the pilot can perform good ADM by selecting a suitable alternate, knowing where to find good weather,