AFH 2-13

Risk Risk is the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. It can be viewed as future uncertainty created by the hazard. ⦁ If the weather or environmental conditions are not properly assessed, such as in a case where an airplane may encounter inadvertent instrument conditions, loss of airplane control may result. ⦁ If the pilot’s lack of training is not properly assessed, the pilot may be placed in flight regimes that exceed the pilot’s stick-and-rudder capability. Risk Assessment Risk assessment determines the degree of risk and whether the degree of risk is worth the outcome of the planned activity. Once the planned activity is started, the pilot needs to consider whether to continue or not. A pilot should always have viable alternatives available in the event the original flight plan cannot be accomplished. Thus, hazard and risk are the two defining elements of risk management. A hazard can be a real or perceived condition, event, or circumstance that a pilot encounters. Risk assessment is a quantitative value weighted to a task, action, or event. When armed with the predicted risk assessment of an activity, pilots are able to manage and mitigate their risk. In the example where marginal weather is the identified hazard, it is relatively simple to understand that the consequences of loss of control during any inadvertent encounter with instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) are likely to be severe for a pilot not prepared to fly on an instrument flight plan. A risk assessment for any such pilot in this example would determine that the risk is unacceptable and as a result, mitigation of the risk is required. Proper risk mitigation would require that flight be canceled or delayed until weather conditions were not conducive for inadvertent flight into instrument meteorological conditions. Risk Identification Identifying hazards and associated risk is key to preventing risk and accidents. If a pilot fails to search for risk, it is likely that he or she will neither see it nor appreciate it for what it represents. Unfortunately, in aviation, pilots seldom have the opportunity to learn from their small errors in judgment because even small mistakes in aviation are often fatal. In order to identify risk, the use of standard procedures is of great assistance. Several procedures are discussed in detail in the Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2). Risk Mitigation Risk assessment is only part of the equation. After determining the level of risk, the pilot needs to mitigate the risk. For example, the VFR pilot flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal flight conditions has several ways to reduce risk: 1. Wait for the weather to improve to good VFR conditions. 2. Take a pilot who is more experienced or who is certified as an instrument flight rules (IFR) pilot. 3. Delay the flight. 4. Cancel the flight. 5. Drive. Resource Management Familiarity with crew resource management (CRM) and single-pilot resource management (SRM) enables a crew or pilot to manage all available resources effectively and leads to a successful flight. In general aviation, SRM comes into play more often. The focus of SRM is on the single-pilot operation. SRM integrates the following: ⦁ Situational Awareness ⦁ Human Resource Management ⦁ Task Management ⦁ Aeronautical Decision-making (ADM) Situational Awareness Situational awareness is the accurate perception of operational and environmental factors that affect the flight. It is a logical analysis based upon the airplane, external support, environment, and the pilot. It is awareness on what is happening in and around the flight. Human Resource Management Human resource management requires an effective use of all available resources: human, equipment, and information.